Anyone with longstanding experience of carbon trading in the EUA market knows one thing: the EU carbon market always surprises. Having stunned the world with a 5-fold increase in under 24 months last summer the once best-performing global commodity plunged to a near 2-year low this March.
With the Easter weekend behind us and the 30th April compliance deadline just 2 weeks away we thought that this was the best time to let people know what attendees of our Coronavirus and the EU ETS webinar thought about the question: What will the EUA price be at the end of 2020? The results are graphed above.
- The highest percentage of respondents, 42%, said that EUAs will cost between €20 and €25 by year-end. After the ‘Coronavirus-bounce’, experienced in worldwide markets, surprisingly EUAs found themselves in this range on the next business day! During the webinar but after the poll, Trevor Sikorski told us that his price forecast for Q4 2020 was in the same range.
- Just behind this group, an almost identical number of the webinar participants thought that the impacts of COVID-19 will be significant enough to hold the EUA price in the €15 to €20 range. For all the hubris of the likes of Donald Trump, who is predicting rapid growth in the economy in a matter of months, a significant proportion of our audience were not so sure.
- Finally, only 9% and 8% of our respondents said that EUAs will price below €15 or between €25 and €30, respectively, at the end of 2020. No–one selected the option of the price being above €30 Euros. So despite all of the turmoil created by the virus, the positive we can take away is that attendees didn’t think that things would get so bad in the economy that the price of EUAs would cave in and that the cost of compliance with the EU ETS in 2020 will be cheaper.
If you are involved in the EU ETS and would like access to the webinar recording, please contact us at email@example.com.