According to the International Energy Agency, from 2021-26, Turkey’s renewable power capacity is forecast to grow by 53% (26GW).
Solar and wind are expected to account for 80% of the capacity increase (reflecting a transition away from hydropower). As at end October 20221, hydropower accounted for 31.5GW (or c.30%) of Turkey’s total installed capacity. Wind accounts for 10.3GW while solar is at 7.6GW. As a proportion of the new capacity additions, solar is expected to account for 48%, wind 30% and hydropower 14%. The balance is expected to comprise biofuels and geothermal power.
The country’s renewable capacity increase is expected to be similar to the forecast global average. For 2021, the IEA forecasts 290GW of global renewable capacity additions. By 2026, it predicts global renewable electricity capacity to rise by >60% to over 4,800GW (vs 2020 levels). Solar PV is expected to account for >50% of the growth. Renewable Energy Resource Zone (YEKA) projects in Turkey are set to be the main drivers of growth in wind and solar.
The IEA stated, “This capacity growth makes Turkey the fifth biggest in Europe and 12th in the world after Germany, France, Spain and the Netherlands”. It also added that growth could be higher. Turkey’s nationally determined contributions in the Paris Agreement target 26GW of solar and wind capacity by 2030. According to IEA projections, Turkey’s wind target could be reached four years early while it solar target could be met seven years ahead of forecasts.
