According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), there is an estimated potential for an additional 120 terawatt-hours per year (TWh/yr) of coal-fired power generation in the European Union (EU) through fuel switching. Analysts at Argus estimate that this would result in approximately 43 million metric tons (mT) of incremental coal imports per year for a plant with 40% efficiency. In 2021, the EU and UK collectively imported around 67 million metric tons of coal, with roughly 32% sourced from Russia.
To compensate for the increased demand and to account for the incremental coal and Russian import shortfall, an additional 88 million metric tons of coal per year would be required.
Given the current tightness in the market, it remains uncertain from which sources this additional coal could be obtained. The IEA has presented this option as an alternative in case its ten-point plan falls short of expectations.
These findings highlight the potential for increased coal consumption and the challenges associated with sourcing sufficient supply to meet the demand, further emphasizing the importance of transitioning towards cleaner and more sustainable energy alternatives in the long run.
