Renewed emphasis on energy independence and national security is raising concerns that policymakers may backtrack on efforts to reduce the use of fossil fuels. The surge in gas prices has abruptly shifted public debate towards the security of supply and pricing, leaving climate concerns in the background. Lucia van Geuns, a strategic energy adviser at the Hague Center for Strategic Studies, highlighted the shift, stating, "Gas prices became very high, and all of a sudden security of supply and price became the main subject of public debate."
Skyrocketing fuel prices have already resulted in increased production and consumption of fuels that contribute to global warming. Coal imports to the European Union in January alone saw a staggering rise of over 56 per cent compared to the previous year. Ian Goldin, a professor of globalization and development at the University of Oxford, warned that high energy prices may lead to intensified exploration of traditional fossil fuels. He stated, "Governments will want to deprioritize renewables and sustainable, which would be exactly the wrong response."
Germany's dependence on Russian gas has long been an integral part of its environmental blueprint, with two-thirds of the gas burned in the country last year coming from Russia. Plans included an even greater reliance on gas through the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. However, in light of President Vladimir V. Putin's recognition of two breakaway republics in Ukraine and mobilization of forces, Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany halted the final regulatory review of the completed $11 billion pipeline.
Europe's lack of a comprehensive strategy to reduce its dependence on gas poses a significant obstacle to achieving its environmental goals. Without a concerted effort to shift away from gas, Europe will struggle to reach its target of reducing emissions by 55 per cent by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, let alone the net zero greenhouse gas target set for the Glasgow summit in 2050. James Nixey, director of the Russia-Eurasia program at Chatham House, acknowledged the shifting dynamics, stating, "This debate is changing" as leaders are compelled to confront the downsides of reliance on Russian energy.
Sarah E. Mendelson, the head of Carnegie Mellon's Heinz College in Washington, emphasized the unsustainable nature of Europe's heavy reliance on Russian gas and oil, stating, "Europe is quite dependent on Russian gas and oil, and this is unsustainable." Currently, Europe relies on Russia for over a third of its natural gas and 25 per cent of its oil. However, deliveries have significantly slowed in recent months, while reserves within Europe have dwindled to just 31 per cent of capacity.
Critics of the European Union's climate policies view the sudden shift in focus from greenhouse gas emissions to existing fuel reserves as a validation of their concerns. The prevailing narrative surrounding energy independence and national security is overshadowing the urgent need to address climate change, potentially derailing efforts to mitigate global warming.
