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CBAM pricing volatility: Why businesses must manage CBAM risk like FX, gas, and energy  

All information is accurate as of 28th April 2025

As the European Union advances its landmark Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), companies face a narrowing window of opportunity to prepare. The policy, aimed at levelling the carbon pricing playing field between EU producers and overseas suppliers is entering a critical phase.

Mounting political pressure for last-minute simplifications has introduced new friction into Brussels’ implementation plans.

The result? A fast-moving environment where the cost of inaction could be significant.

The message is clear: waiting may result in missed strategic opportunities, increased risk, and rising compliance costs. Redshaw Advisors brings deep market expertise and advisory capabilities to help businesses act decisively in an era of regulatory uncertainty.

The right support enables CBAM readiness

With the CBAM costs tied to the fluctuating carbon market, this creates significant uncertainty for businesses when forecasting future expenses.

Dynamics such as policy changes, shifts in energy demand, and even weather conditions make it challenging for businesses to accurately predict future CBAM costs, as even small fluctuations in EUA (EU Emission Allowances) prices can result in substantial changes to the cost of CBAM compliance.

To mitigate the financial uncertainties introduced by CBAM, companies must adopt a proactive approach to carbon risk management. This requires integrating carbon exposure into broader risk management strategies, similar to how businesses manage FX, energy, and raw material price risks.

This means procurement is no longer a support function, it’s a strategic enabler. The CBAM places procurement teams at the very heart of carbon risk management. Their ability to act early will determine whether organisations gain a competitive edge – or fall behind.

The evolving nature of CBAM regulations, compounded by internal EU discussion, means businesses must plan for multiple scenarios. The most agile organisations are already embedding CBAM considerations into Q2 2025 business decisions.

The key takeaways:

  • The CBAM regulations are still evolving, with possible changes that businesses must evaluate
  • Procurement decisions are now pivotal to managing both financial exposure and regulatory obligations
  • Proactive engagement is essential. Early movers will be better positioned to manage costs and supply continuity

The high cost of hesitation

What’s at stake for businesses that delay preparation for the CBAM?

Companies that fail to act may find themselves reacting to compliance deadlines under pressure, often at significant financial and operational cost. Strategic minds are avoiding the cost and increased complexity of a “wait and see” policy in favour of decisive action.

Delaying CBAM strategy could result in:

  • Cost volatility: Unhedged exposure to rising carbon costs can erode margins.
  • Supply chain disruption: Non-compliant suppliers may lead to bottlenecks or missed compliance deadlines.
  • Competitive disadvantage: Early movers are already building resilient, CBAM-compliant supply networks.
  • Regulatory risk: Missteps during the transitional phase can carry financial penalties and reputational harm.

The CBAM, and broader carbon legislation, may be complex, but with the right strategy and partners in place, complexity can become competitive advantage. Redshaw Advisors aims to empower companies, turning regulatory change into a strategic advantage.

Proactive solutions for a shifting carbon landscape

To thrive in this evolving regulatory landscape, adopting a proactive approach to carbon risk management is crucial. Our CBAM solutions are tailored to help you stay ahead of regulatory demands, ensuring your business is positioned for long-term success in the low-carbon economy

The Carbon Support Programme

The Carbon Support Programme, (CSP) empowers you to tailor your strategy to the complexity, risk, and pace of CBAM developments. By integrating daily updates, expert analysis, and strategic tools, the CSP delivers a comprehensive solution tailored to your needs. From understanding the fundamentals to mitigating risks, the Carbon Support Programme equips you with the knowledge, confidence, and control to thrive in the evolving carbon economy.

The Virtual CBAM Certificate (VCC)®

The Virtual CBAM Certificate, developed by Redshaw Advisors, empowers businesses to mitigate financial uncertainty and lock in CBAM costs ahead of time, eliminating budgeting guesswork.

The VCC® empowers you to: 

  • Lock in CBAM certificate costs
  • Ensure budget certainty and protect margins 
  • Maximise flexibility and cashflow liquidity

Partner with Redshaw Advisors and gain a proactive edge in navigating the evolving CBAM landscape. Speak to one of our advisors to understand how we can help you manage the financial risks of your decarbonisation journey.

Discover how our solutions can give your business an edge in a volatile landscape:
???? Explore the Carbon Support Program and the Virtual CBAM Certificate (VCC)®.
???? Call us on +44 20 3637 1055


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